The Traffic Modelling Reality Gap

Ex-Wellingtonian Nina Arron is a planner with a passion for Pedestrian Oriented Development who now lives in New Rochelle, New York. This means that she is in a great position to observe the gap between traffic modellers’ predictions and modern transport reality – the reality that traffic volumes are declining.

Photo by Patrick Morgan
Photo by Patrick Morgan

It seems that NZTA are not the only transport planners who are unable to see this reality. Nina has compiled a series of examples, from the US, Canada and Australia, of instances in which traffic planners’ faith in their outdated and inadequate models has led to costly transport failures.

You can read her article here: http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL1311/S00083/transportation-in-the-21st-century-the-modelingreality-gap.htm

NZTA – and the Government ministers behind the $12 billion “Roads of National Significance” scheme – are willing slaves to their models of endless traffic growth, unable to see the evidence of declining vehicle volumes that is in front of their eyes. That’s why it’s great to have someone like Nina to point it out to them.

Blow, Wind! Come, Wrack! NZTA’s Flyover Planners Ought To Get The Sack

When William Shakespeare wrote the lines above, he was thinking of a certain unpopular Scottish king rather than NZTA (and to be fair, it was actually me who wrote the bit about NZTA).

But Wellington is a very windy place. We were reminded of that on Monday this week, when gusts of up to 140kmh rendered various Wellington streets unsafe. As usual, the wind speeds near the Basin Reserve were particularly high – in a strong north-westerly, Kent and Cambridge Terraces appear to act as wind tunnels, funnelling air towards the Basin Reserve.

And guess what NZTA want to build right in the path of such winds, and the less frequent but often equally vicious southerlies? A 9 metre high flyover, plus walkway/cycleway. 9 metres is a long way to fall.

NZTA’s own Basin “Bridge” proposal documents already admit that high winds will be a problem for the proposed flyover, as reported in this Dominion Post story:

A resource consent application for the proposed $90 million Basin Bridge, which was referred to a board of inquiry last week, states wind gusts in the middle of the bridge could be “extremely high”, at more than 25 metres a second, which NZTA confirmed amounted to 90kmh.

“The orientation of the bridge to the prevailing winds means that pedestrians and cyclists will be exposed to wind flows from the side, for which they are less prepared,” the consent says.

There is also risk to high-sided vehicles, such as lightly loaded trucks, and to motorcyclists when winds hit more than 90kmh: “Effects can range from causing tracking variations to complete overturning.”

Note that NZTA says the danger starts at winds of 90kmh – yet the wind reached speeds of 140kmh in Wellington in Monday’s storm, and similar speeds have been experienced in other recent storms. Wind gusts above 90kmh are by now means uncommon in Wellington.

The news gets worse for NZTA: Both the frequency and the strength of extreme wind events are expected to increase over the proposed project lifetime as a result of climate change (see, for example, http://www.niwa.co.nz/our-science/climate/information-and-resources/clivar/scenarios#regional). So the danger to drivers, passengers, walkers and cyclists will only get worse.

And what does NZTA propose to do about this serious and growing problem? Well, er … they plan to put up warning signs. Yep, that’s pretty much it.

The disconnect between the seriousness of the problem and the triviality of the response would be laughable if it were not for the fact that lives would be at stake if the flyover goes ahead. A wind of change needs to blow through NZTA: a strong wind, and soon.

Submission Guide: Proposed Basin Bridge (Flyover)

Note: For formal purposes , the flyover proposal is called the “Basin Bridge Proposal”.

This guide has been developed by the Save the Basin campaign to assist people in making a written submission to the Board of Inquiry that has been established by the Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) to hear the NZTA’s resource consent application for a ‘Basin Bridge’. The Guide is divided into Part One – the process of making a submission – and Part Two, which gives you some pointers on what you might want to cover in your submission.

The Guide is below, but you can also download it as a PDF file:

Submission Guide: Proposed Basin Bridge (Flyover) (PDF, 184 KB)

STOP PRESS

Three things we’ve recently learned that aren’t in the Submission Guide, and one further suggestion:

1) You don’t need to be 18 or over to submit – there is no minimum age limit. So school-age children can submit – and they should, especially if they live or study in the vicinity of the proposed flyover.
2) You don’t have to be living in New Zealand to submit.
3) The EPA has released its draft schedule for the Board of Inquiry process – and it shows the hearings starting on Monday 13 January, when many people are still on holiday. If you feel this is unfairly early, tell the EPA so in your submission, and urge them to start the hearings later. The draft schedule is on p24 of this EPA Inquiry Procedures document.
4) In the online submission form, when you ask to appear, you are given the option of going in with other submitters making similar points. We suggest that you ask to appear separately.

PART ONE – THE PROCESS

Here are the main points about the submissions process:

  • The deadline for submissions is 5pm on Friday 6 September 2013.
  • Submissions can be made online, by email, by fax, by post or by delivering in person. Details of these options are contained in the Information Sheet.
  • Whichever method you use, if your submission is in electronic form, please send a copy to Save the Basin: stoptheflyover@gmail.com
  • The subject line of your submission email is required to read “Submission [your name], Basin Bridge Proposal”
  • In your submission, you are required to:
    – give your full name and contact details
    – say whether you are a trade competitor of the applicant (NZTA) – presumably you aren’t!
    – state which parts of the application your submission relates to
    – state your position on the proposal
    – say what decision you would like the Board to make
    – say whether or not you would like to speak at the Board hearing
  • If your submission does not meet these requirements, it should not be rejected. The EPA should contact you to clarify these points. However, best to get it right first time.
  • You are allowed to send additions to your submission, or a replacement submission, up until the closing date for submissions

Note: All details can be found on the Environmental Protection Authority’s Information for Submitters):

Save the Basin is encouraging submitters to:

  • Say you are completely opposed to the proposed flyover
  • Cover the reasons you are opposed to the flyover, and all the topic areas you wish to bring to the Board’s attention, in your written submission – if you don’t mention a topic in this submission, you can’t introduce it in your subsequent written or oral evidence
  • Your submission doesn’t have to be complicated. It can simply state how you will be affected by the proposed flyover, and what your personal reasons are for opposing it.
  • Ask to speak at the hearing, and say that you want to present your submission as an individual. (It’s OK if you find out later you can’t appear and it’s also possible for you to arrange someone else to appear on your behalf).  If you do ask to appear in person, you can prepare additional evidence – but it can only expand on the areas you discussed in your original submission, not cover new areas.
  • We have been told that people who don’t initially say they want to speak at the hearing can subsequently change their mind and ask to appear, up to the start of the Board hearing. Our advice is: don’t rely on this: say in your initial submission that you want to appear.

Why are we asking submitters to say they want to appear in front of a Board of Inquiry?

  • A Board of Inquiry with only a few submitters appearing will be a fast Board of Inquiry. We believe the Board of Inquiry should consider the proposed Basin flyover at the length and with the seriousness it deserves.
  • Appearing in front of the Board gives you more time to prepare your detailed evidence – to elaborate on the topics you made in your original submission. If you don’t raise a topic in your initial submission, then you can’t address it later in written and/or oral evidence you present to the Board.
  • This Board of Inquiry is, when it comes right down to it, a political rather than a legal process. It’s your chance to be part of a broad community movement that tells the politicians that opposition to the proposed flyover is widespread, dedicated and determined.

How scary is it to appear before a Board of Inquiry?

Not very scary! You’re not on trial – NZTA’s proposal is. The Board is a lot less formal than a court room. You don’t have to do it alone. You can bring a support person. Save the Basin will endeavour to have someone at the hearing at all times.

If you find later that you aren’t available or can’t face the Board you can always pull out, or get someone else to appear on your behalf (see below).

Other points about appearing before the Board

  • At the time of writing, there remains a risk that the Board will decide to hold the hearing over December and January, when large numbers of people would be unavailable to appear. In your submission, please ask the Board not to start meeting until the final week of January at the earliest, and point out the unfairness of a hearing that starts in December or early January.
  • You can ask to appear in your initial submission, and then subsequently arrange for someone else to present evidence on your behalf. As long as you make sure that that person is familiar with your evidence, there’s no disadvantage in doing this.
  • Appearing before the Board can open up other options, such as taking part in the ‘conferencing’ process or cross-examining NZTA experts. If you’d like to know more about these options, please get in touch: email stoptheflyover@gmail.com

PART TWO – IDEAS TO HELP YOU MAKE A SUBMISSION

Set out below are some key headings and bullet points that may give you some ideas on what to say in your own words why you are against the flyover. Please note that we do not want lots of identically-worded submissions – these points are meant only as a guide. But you should make sure to include each topic area that concerns you in your submission, so that you can return to it in later evidence to the Board if you wish.

The Personal Touch

  • If you live, work or travel through the area (or if your children attend a local school) – talk about how the proposal affects you, your family and your neighbourhood.

For Cricket Fans and Players

  • The Basin Reserve is regarded as one of the great cricket grounds of the world and the proposed flyover denigrates the history and heritage of the venue.
  • The proposed flyover would dominate and spoil the northern skyline of the iconic Basin Reserve.
  • The proposed mitigation feature – a new pavilion – is just a glorified wall with no seating for general spectators. It may shield players from a direct view of the flyover, but it will not shield spectators.
  • The net effect of this proposal will be to make the Basin worse for cricketers, spectators and the general public.

Urban Design and Heritage

  • The proposed flyover will be an unsightly monstrosity that will be visible from a distance and from many places around the Basin.
  • It’s a very ugly concrete structure and will ruin an iconic streetscape.
  • It’s inappropriate and disrespectful to propose to have such an unsightly concrete structure next to the new War Memorial Park.
  • The tranquillity of the new Memorial Park would be ruined by the roar of a large flyover next to it.
  • What we need is a 21st Century Capital that is people-centred, people-friendly and not car-centred. The proposed flyover would be a major backwards step.
  • The proposed flyover divides the city, creating a concrete barrier from north to south.
  • Many visitors and tourists to NZ want to see an attractive city, not a sprawling concrete wilderness.
  • The Basin Reserve is a registered historic site and a recreation ground to be preserved for ever for the people of Wellington, that will be ruined forever; the green space on Kent and Cambridge Terrace is part of the Town Belt and legally no thoroughfare is allowed to be made across it.

Environment, Safety and Health

  • The proposed flyover will be noisy and will spread pollution due to its height above the street.
  • The NZTA’s own resource application shows the proposed flyover could present a real danger to pedestrians, cyclists and some vehicles in high winds – with no means of escape if they’re caught on the central section of the flyover.
  • We are concerned about the safety of the proposed flyover to cyclists, pedestrians and vehicles in the event of a major earthquake event.
  • Especially concerned about the public health impacts of a raised road that will spread particulates that are known to cause serious health conditions.
  • Concerned about the effects on the 4000 school children and their teachers who study and work at schools in the area. Many would either pass through the area twice daily or spend many hours a day close to the flyover.
  • The proposed flyover will generate a lot of noise from a steeply inclined road (particularly trucks travelling up and down the road) – along with vibration, dust and pollution.
  • Construction of the proposed flyover will generate high levels of noise, dust and vibration.

Transport

  • The proposed flyover won’t solve issues around peak-hour traffic congestion; it’ll merely move the issue further along the road.
  • Vehicle traffic has been declining in recent years, so a flyover is not needed.
  • Traffic flow could be improved and a lot of money saved by small changes to lane layout, priority lanes and traffic light phasing.
  • The proposed flyover goes against the development of public transport and sustainable transport issues for Wellington.
  • In progressive cities elsewhere, flyovers are being demolished not built. Why is Wellington being stuck with a 1960s approach to traffic management?

For more ideas on what to say in a submission you might want to go to:

The Save the Basin presentation from our public meeting on 3 August (PDF, 1.5MB) that is now available on our website. (Or just see savethebasin.org.nz)

Environmental Protection Authority – Friend of the Submitter

You can find information about this and the Friend of the Submitter sessions on the EPA website.

Some News Media Stories:

Dominion Post: Wind Gusts Pose Potential Hazard On Flyover

Wellington Scoop: Richard Reid – Why One Basin Flyover Will Be Followed By A Second Flyover

Wellington Scoop: Packed Theatre Hears Richard Reid Warn Of “Irrevocable Damage” From Second Flyover

KEY POINTS

  1. Make a written submission by 5pm on Friday 6 September 2013
  2. Cover all the topic areas you are concerned about, at least briefly
  3. If at all possible, ask to speak at the Board hearing
  4. Keep in touch with Save the Basin to find out the latest

Save the Basin Flyover Presentation – Full Of Good Submission Ideas

The closing date for submissions on the proposed Basin flyover is 5pm on Friday 6 September. We’ve explained how to make a submission, and stressed the crucial importance of saying that you want to appear in person before the Board.

But what should you say in your submission? That’s up to you – a whole lot of identical submissions is the last thing we’re looking for – but here’s a presentation that can help give you ideas:

Save the Basin Flyover Presentation (August 2013) (PDF, 1.5 MB).

It’s based on the presentation given at our very successful public meeting on Saturday 3 August, and it’s full of very good reasons why a Basin Reserve flyover should not proceed.

We’re aiming to have a full Submission Guide on the site and distributed to our supporters by this time next week. But don’t feel you need to wait for that before you get cracking on your submission!

Auckland shows the legacy of NZTA-style transport planning
Auckland shows the legacy of NZTA-style transport planning

Basin Flyover Submission Process

The submission process for NZTA’s proposed Basin Reserve flyover has now been announced. You’ll find all the details on the Environmental Protection Agency’s Information for Submitters page and their downloadable Basin Bridge Information Sheet, but here are the main points:

  • The deadline for submissions is 5pm on Friday 6 September 2013.
  • You can make submissions online, by email, by fax, by post or by delivering in person. Details of these options are contained in the Information Sheet.
  • You can make an online submission, but we recommend that that you email your submission (if it’s less than 10MB) to basinbridge@epa.govt.nz. You are also required to cc it to NZTA: greg.lee@nzta.govt.nz. Please also cc it to Save the Basin: stoptheflyover@gmail.com.
  • The subject line of your submission is required to read “Submission [your name], Basin Bridge Proposal” (but we still think you should call it a flyover in every other context!)

We’ll be producing a submission guide and putting it up here soon, but the key points are:

  • Submit
  • Encourage friends and colleagues to submit
  • Say that you are completely opposed to the proposed flyover
  • Cover the reasons you are opposed to the flyover – you can’t introduce new areas later
  • Ask to speak at the hearing, and say that you want to present your case individually, not jointly. (If you later find out you can’t appear, there won’t be any repercussions for you.) If you do ask to appear in person, you can prepare additional evidence – but it can only expand on the areas you discussed in your original submission, not cover new areas. And only people who have submitted by 5pm on Friday 6 September 2013 get the chance to appear and present additional evidence.

Remember – we have had to listen to NZTA’s spin and lies for far too long. This hearing is the time when they have to sit there and listen to us. Let’s make the most of it.

Dominion Post Puts The Wind Up NZTA’s Flyover Plans

In a front-page story today the Dominion Post raised serious questions about the safety of the proposed Basin Reserve flyover in strong wind conditions. Journalist Tessa Johnstone drew attention to the statement in NZTA’s own resource consent application documents that wind gusts in the middle of the one-way flyover could be “extremely high” and NZTA’s admission that pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists, and the drivers of high-sided vehicles (e.g. vans and light trucks) could all be affected – with the risks, according to NZTA, running up to ‘complete overturning’ of high-sided vehicles.

NZTA says that it will put up guard rails on either side of the proposed cycleway/walkway. But when it comes to drivers and motorcyclists, NZTA’s proposed mitigation for this problem amounts to putting up warning signs on a route from which they have no escape!

As Cycle Aware Wellington’s Patrick Morgan states in the article, “Signage is not a solution, it’s an admission of failure.”

NZTA tried to downplay this story. They failed, and now one of the many deficiencies of this flyover proposal is out there in the public eye. In Save the Basin’s eyes, the whole flyover project is an admission of the Government and NZTA’s failure to deliver a modern, sustainable transport solution for Wellington. More of the proposal’s many failures will come to light over the next few months.

Snippets

  • Even the National Party doesn’t want to live next to a flyover, as you’ll see if you read down to the fourth paragraph from the bottom of this Dominion Post article (see fourth para from bottom).
  • The EPA has set an “indicative date” of Saturday for submissions to open on the proposed Basin Reserve flyover. As soon as the EPA is able to be a little more definite, we will bring you news of how to make submissions and suggest some key points for you to make.

 

 

Save the Basin Public Meeting, Saturday 3 August: NZTA’s Flyover Plans Revealed

The New Zealand Transport Agency has submitted its resource consent application for a Basin Reserve flyover. There are details hidden in NZTA’s plans that will affect you if a Basin flyover goes ahead. What is NZTA up to? What can you do about it? This is your chance to find out.

flyer_image

Public Meeting, 4-5pm, Saturday 3 August, St Joseph’s Church, cnr Brougham and Paterson Streets, Mt Victoria

  • What is the Save the Basin Campaign doing to stop the proposed flyover? What’s been happening, and what’s coming next?
  • What are the key points in NZTA’s Basin flyover plans?
  • There are some issues that NZTA has been trying to keep quiet – but we’re onto them. What are the things NZTA doesn’t want you to know about?
  • What can you do to make sure your voice is heard in the resource consent hearing process?

After the meeting, we’ll have people who’ve been studying NZTA’s plans available to answer questions and help you make your own response to these proposals.

Don’t be left in the dark. Find out what NZTA is planning and what you can do about it.

 

A Tale Of Two Cities

Auckland. New Zealand’s largest city.

After several years of pooh-poohing the idea, the Government reverses its stance on funding (or at least partially funding) the Auckland central city rail loop. (Update: We have been told quite firmly by Auckland transport friends that it is not a loop!)

Even though the Government is delaying the project by five years and is coy on where the money will come from and how much it will pay, it’s still a big step forward for sustainable transport in Auckland and a triumph for Auckland mayor Len Brown, who has stubbornly maintained his support for the project in the face of Governmental and NZTA opposition. Well done, Auckland, and well done, Len Brown!

Wellington. New Zealand’s capital city.

The Government and the New Zealand Transport Agency push ahead with a roading-based transport ‘solution’ for Wellington that includes a proposed Basin Reserve flyover. The NZTA, Greater Wellington and the WCC release a public transport spine study that claims light rail will be too expensive for Wellington. The Mayor gives her support to a “bus rapid transit system”.

No sooner have the study’s conclusions been released than two Victoria University transport researchers expose how NZTA has cooked the books to greatly inflate the apparent cost of rail relative to other options. And transport researcher Kerry Wood also points out the biased costings in NZTA’s study.

A tale of two cities. In Auckland, civic leaders keep advocating for the best solution, and eventually, after much derision from their opponents, they get what they stood up for.

In Wellington, the Government and NZTA are using similar tactics. They have tried to tilt the playing field in favour of the ‘solution’ they want. They’ve been caught out.

Will Wellingtonians and their civic leaders see through the spin and continue to push for the best possible sustainable transport solution for Wellington, or will we cave in?

It’s up to us.

Mary Varnham Tells Dominion Post Readers Why Flyover Madness Must Stop

The Dominion Post has a firmly – some might even say rabidly – pro-flyover editorial stance. But, to give them credit, they are prepared to publish opinion pieces to the contrary. On Wednesday, they published an excellent piece by Mary Varnham entitled “Why Flyover Madness Must Stop”. Mary was a Wellington City Councillor from 1998-2001 and co-founded the successful “Chaffers Park – Make It Happen!” campaign.

A few choice quotes from Mary’s article:

“Building a flyover for cars at a time when fast, non-polluting rapid transit is dramatically enhancing the charm and liveability of cities across Europe (and increasingly North America) would make our city the laughing stock of modern transport planners.”

“It’s long been known that, no matter how much you gild the lily with euphemisms like “bridge” and drawings showing trees and smiling pedestrians, elevated roads resting on concrete pillars are a seed bed for ugliness, urban blight and crime.”

“It is clearly crazy to create a monstrosity just to save rush-hour drivers a few minutes driving from the eastern suburbs to Taranaki St.”

Well said, Mary!

You can read the full article here: http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/comment/8813005/Why-flyover-madness-must-stop

Save the Basin Campaign Press Release: Proposed Flyover Ugly, Unnecessary and Unjustified

The Save the Basin Campaign today said that the New Zealand Transport Agency could spin its proposed Basin Reserve flyover however it liked, but the very fact NZTA felt it necessary to come up with various new cosmetic measures to try to hide the flyover showed that the project remained ugly, unnecessary and unjustified.

“NZTA can dress up their proposed flyover however they like, but no amount of spin and no amount of cosmetics can disguise the fact that the agency is trying to impose an ugly, outdated transport solution on Wellington that does nothing to meet Wellington’s transport needs,” said Save the Basin Campaign spokesperson Joanna Newman.

“Flyovers might have been cutting-edge in the 1960s,” Ms Newman continued. “But in the second decade of the 21st century, the idea of building a flyover near the centre of a modern nation’s capital city is ludicrous.”

“All over the world, from Seoul to Seattle, from Portland to Leicester, cities are tearing down flyovers and replacing them with good urban design and sustainable transport solutions. Unfortunately, the Government and the NZTA seem to think that Los Angeles and Auckland are the transport models that Wellington should follow.”

“The Basin Reserve has come under many threats over the years,” said Ms Newman. “In the end all retreated in the face of public opposition because Wellingtonians have placed a high value on the unique character of this reserve, held in trust for them by the Council.

“Yet again, the Basin is under threat, and we are sure that, as they have in the past, Wellingtonians and cricket fans from around the world will rally round to protect it.”

“The Save the Basin Campaign is committed to stopping this ugly blight on the urban landscape from ever being built,” Joanna Newman concluded. “We have a range of methods available to us, and we look forward to using them.”

Joanna Newman
Spokesperson
Save the Basin Campaign